Forex Weekly Forecast & FX Analysis May 03 - 07

EUR/USD

The euro is strengthening its position against the US dollar. The single European currency has been demonstrating an unambiguous upward movement throughout the past week, as a result of which the price was above the strong level of 1.2083. The upward dynamics is also confirmed by indicators. This can be clearly seen from the oscillator, which has been built for a long time in the area above 50. If we compare the price and the histogram, then there is a clear divergence when the price rises and the histogram falls. Thus, we can expect that the divergence, which is already being built on at least four tops, should soon lead to a downward movement.

GBP/USD

The British pound is mostly trading neutral against the US dollar, but there is an upward trend here as well. First of all, we note the fact that over the past week the price has finally consolidated above the level of 1.3850, and the moving average has already changed its slope to an upward one. This is confirmed by the indicators, which, although they are mostly in the positive area, do not show a strong movement. Thus, we are talking about the fact that the upward dynamics can only just gain strength, and it has not yet entered its main active stage. Therefore, you can open an upward contract for a long time.

USD/JPY

The main distinguishing feature of the development of the dollar against the Japanese yen is the absence of high volatility, but a trend movement is being formed. Globally, we still say that a downtrend is developing for this currency pair, however, locally we see a correction. The past week has led to the fact that we have every reason to consider the correction complete. Firstly, all indicators have already moved from negative to positive and are demonstrating local maximum values. Secondly, the price reached the level of 109,200 and at the same time the level of the moving averages. This level was tested twice and there was no upward breakdown. Thus, one can expect that the market will return to a downward movement.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is returning to the growth stage against the US dollar. The price has already turned out to be above the important level of 0.7683 and above the level of moving averages. As for the average values, their levels have also already changed the slope to an upward one and have also turned out to be above the important level. If we consider the indicators, then they confirm the upward dynamics, since they are built mainly in the positive area, and if they go down into the negative area, they leave there very quickly. Trades in recent weeks allow for an additional price level at around 0.7810. This level, together with an uptrend line, makes it possible to form a graphical "triangle" figure. The price is close to the top of this figure, and you cannot trade while it is in the triangle. We are waiting in which direction the chart pattern will be broken and open a contract in the direction of the breakout.

USD/CAD

The past week has led to a very strong downward movement of the value of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. As a result of this movement, the price turned out to be at its lowest values ​​for more than 3 months. The movement turned out to be so strong that there were practically no upward corrections, and the price dropped by more than 200 points in just a few days. The movement had an impact on the indicators, which simultaneously dropped into negative values and are also testing their local minimums. The best solution for a given currency pair is to refuse to trade. If we consider the option with the opening of a deal, then it is most likely possible to open an upward contract in the hope of a correctional movement. At the same time, one cannot count on a strong upward movement.

USD/CHF

For several weeks in a row, a downward movement has been observed for this currency pair. As a result, last week the price came close to the important level of 0.9061. If we consider the ratio of the price chart and indicators, then it is very important to note that all indicators show divergence in relation to the price. On the chart, we can still see how the price goes down and gradually renews local minimums on itself. If we consider the movement of indicators, there is clearly an upward movement. Thus, taking into account the fact that the market tested an important psychological level from top to bottom and failed to break it, an upward movement can be expected.

USD/RUB

Last week, the US dollar against the Russian ruble traded with elements of low volatility, and mostly in the negative area. As a result, the price turned out to be below the moving averages and broke through several important levels at once. The downward movement is also traced by the indicator, since all graphic elements are plotted in the negative area. Please note that there are at least 2 candles on the price chart, which formed a very short body, but at the same time a very long upward shadow. These are signs of uncertainty, which together can strengthen the downward movement, which means that we are considering trading down for the coming week.

Gold

Within the framework of the last weeks, gold has been forming an uptrend, but if we consider only the last 2 weeks, then there is clearly a sideways movement with the resistance level at 1763.504. The uptrend line has already been broken to the right side, which clearly confirms, at least, a slowdown in the upward movement. At the same time, the uptrend itself has not yet lost its strength, and it is confirmed by all indicators. Thus, we expect that the price of gold will go up from the current value. If the price starts moving down and manages to gain a foothold below the level of 1863.504, then a downward contract may be opened.