Forex Weekly Forecast & FX Analysis May 10 - 14
EUR/USD
The past week has led to a decrease in the value of the euro against the US dollar. In fact, the correction, which we talked about in the previous weekly review, worked. At the current market stage, it is important to note that the correction stopped near the level of the moving averages, after which it began to rise, reaching 1.2083. The price is close to this level and cannot move away from it yet. Nevertheless, taking into account the general dominance of the upward dynamics, it is possible to consider options for trading upward.
GBP/USD
The British pound is mainly developing horizontally against the US dollar. This is very clearly seen from the indicators, which in the last weeks are built mainly near the neutral lines and do not significantly move away from them. If we look at the price chart, the last high and low points can be used to draw ascending and descending levels, which together form a “triangle” pattern. The price is inside this figure and is approaching its top. Moreover, the levels of moving averages are practically inside the figure. Thus, we refuse to trade this currency pair until the triangle is broken. Further, in the direction of the breakdown, open a contract.
USD/JPY
For several weeks in a row, we have stated that trading in the dollar against the Japanese yen is characterized by low volatility. The past week was no exception. The most important market characteristic is that from the level of 109, 630, the price began to move downward, which is accompanied by a similar movement in the indicators. As part of the downward movement, the price develops in the area of the level 109, 200, and at the same time in the area of the moving averages. Taking into account the fact that the moving average is looking down and, on average, the current trend is downward, we can consider trading options for a fall.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar continues to try to form an uptrend against the US dollar. It is characteristic that if we consider indicators, then they come into some conflict with the price. For example, if we consider the histogram, then all last week it was built in the negative area, they want the market to grow on the price chart. Therefore, taking into account a combination of factors, one can consider options for trading up, but exclusively from the level of moving averages. As for the global trend, we distinguish a corridor with the boundaries of 0.7683 and 0.7802. As soon as the price goes beyond this corridor, it will be possible to open a contract.
USD/CAD
The US dollar continues to fall rapidly against the Canadian dollar. Last week, the price of this currency pair dropped to the level of 1.2150, which is the minimum value in more than 3 months. The downward fall turned out to be so strong that the oscillator has been in the oversold zone for a long time, and is even being built below level 20. Therefore, if we consider the histogram, then the downward movement is not so pronounced, since despite the general price fall, the histogram does not confirm the minimum values. ... In a combination of factors, given that the price has moved very far from the moving averages, one can consider options for trading up.
USD/CHF
The value of the dollar against the Swiss franc during the last month's trading forms a very interesting situation when indicators come into conflict with the price. If the price chart is considered, then there is clearly a downtrend, within which the price constantly updates the minimum values and has already reached the important level of 0.9061. At the same time, the indicators look up. Thus, we can talk about a long-term divergence. Taking into account that the market has reached an important psychological level for itself, we can expect that it will move upward.
USD/RUB
The dollar continues to trade negatively against the Russian ruble and made a downward movement last week. The downward movement is pronounced and is clearly visible on the price chart as well as on the indicators. For a long time, trades are carried out negatively, although at the same time, candles with long shadows in different directions remain periodically on the chart, which indicates uncertainty. In general, the global trend for the growth of the currency pair has not been lost, therefore, one can expect that the current downward movement was corrective, which means that a contract for an increase can be opened.
Gold
The price of gold last week made a rather strong upward movement, as a result of which it turned out to be even above the level of 1820.00. At the same time, the oscillator was in the overbought area. The histogram moved from the negative area to the area of positive values and strengthened significantly there. Therefore, we can say that the presence of an important level and the presence of the oscillator in the overbought area can force the price of gold to move down. Therefore, we open a downtrend contract, but take into account that we are working against the trend and against the market.
